疫情之后，我国上市企业的平均产品标价率和利润率均有明显上升，学界对此现 象看法多为疫情过后，消费行业的经济复苏，上市企业的利润率增长与疫情好转不可分割，全球的战疫胜利起到经济发动机的作用。

为探究企业利润率的上升趋势与疫情的因果关系和传导机制，本文结合经济史中 福格尔“反事实度量”思想，选取了Wind公布的4956家公开交易上市公司的2000~2021 年的公开数据，分别构建历史趋势分析以及贝叶斯结构时间序列模型以探讨COVID-19 新冠疫情对上市企业的加价率、利润率的影响。贝叶斯结构时间序列的回归分析的结 果表明，如果没有发生新冠疫情，产品加价率会比2020年和2021年的观察值分别高4% 和7%，而利润率会比观测值低2.1和6.4个百分点，也即新冠疫情的出现反而一定程度 控制了产品加价，并促使了上市企业利润率增长，这与学界主流的新冠疫情降低市场 利率的观点形成对立。

同时本文采用截断面回归模型来对上市企业的加价率和利润率进行回归检验，在 模型构建中本文选用多个辅助变量做回归，如市场势力(行业集中度)、资本集中度 及资产报酬率等，以求获取疫情影响加价率和利润率的具体机制。结果进一步表明， 新冠疫情对企业的影响在关键的企业特征(资本集中度、资产报酬率)和行业方面( 行业集中度)方面存在着显著的异质性。本文发现，加价率低于预测的公司往往有较 低的资本集中度和资产报酬率，反而具有较高的市场势力。

After the epidemic, the average product markup and profitability of listed companies in China have increased significantly. The academic community is of the view that after the epidemic, the economy of the consumer sector has recovered, the profitability of listed companies has increased inseparably from the improvement of the epidemic, and the global victory of the epidemic has played the role of an economic engine.

In order to investigate the causal relationship and transmission mechanism between the rising trend of corporate profitability and the epidemic, this paper combines Fogel's "counterfactual measure" idea in economic history and selects the public data of 4956 publicly traded listed companies published by Wind from 2000 to 2021, and constructs historical trend analysis and Bayesian structure respectively. time series models to explore the impact of the COVID-19 new crown epidemic on the mark-up rate and profitability of listed companies. The results of the Bayesian structural time series regression analysis indicate that, in the absence of the outbreak, product mark-ups would have been 4% and 7% higher than the observed values in 2020 and 2021 respectively, while profit margins would have been 2.1 and 6.4 percentage points lower than the observed values, i.e. the presence of the outbreak would have controlled product mark-ups to a certain extent and contributed to the increase in profit margins of listed companies, which is in line with the prevailing academic view that the outbreak reduced market rates. This contradicts the mainstream view that the new crown epidemic lowered market interest rates.

The paper also uses a truncated regression model to examine the mark-ups and profitability of listed companies. In the model construction, several auxiliary variables are used, such as market power (industry concentration), capital concentration and return on assets, in order to capture the specific mechanisms by which the epidemic affected mark-ups and profitability. The results further show that there is significant heterogeneity in the impact of the new crown epidemic on firms in terms of key firm characteristics (capital concentration, return on assets) and industry aspects (industry concentration). The paper finds that firms with lower than predicted markups tend to have lower capital concentration and return on assets, and instead have higher market power.

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