中国火力发电以煤炭发电为主，具有高能耗、高污染的特点。风能、太阳能发电是火力发电的替代品，近年来，中国可再生能源快速发展，风能、太阳能发电在获得大量政府补贴的背景下快速发展，也出现了弃风弃光、过度挤占火电生存空间的问题。根据经济学理论，这种过剩的供给可能导致火力发电的收入效应超过需求效应，从而导致火力发电的需求量上升，从而导致风能、太阳能发电无法有效替代火力发电。通过对中国月频省际面板数据进行门限回归分析，本文发现风能、太阳能人均发电量与火力发电人均发电量之间存在非线性关系：在一定门限值以内的风能、太阳能发电能够有效替代火力发电；而超过一定门限值后，风能、太阳能发电不能替代火力发电，反而对火力发电具有显著的促进作用。根据本文结论，中国部分省份需要限制风能、太阳能发电新增规模，完善电力市场体制，避免电力供给过剩，实现节能减排的目标。

China's thermal power has the characteristics of high energy consumption and high pollution. Wind and solar power are substitutes for thermal power in China. Recently, China's renewable energy is growing rapidly under a large number of government subsidies. There are also problems of wind and solar power curtailment and over-substituting the market share of thermal power. According to the theory, excess supply may cause the revenue effect of thermal power to exceed the substitution effect, which leads to the increase of demand for thermal power, thus wind and solar power can’t substitute thermal power effectively. Based on the threshold regression analysis of China's monthly inter-provincial panel data, we find that there is a non-linear relationship between the per-capita wind and solar power and per-capita thermal power: under the certain threshold value, the wind and solar power can effectively replace the thermal power; but beyond it, the wind and solar power can’t substitute the thermal power, which is instead by a significant positive promoting effect. As a result, some provinces in China need to limit the rapid growing of wind and solar power, improve the efficiency in electricity market and avoid excess electricity supply.

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