& ltp& gt    冲突是社会中普遍存在的现象，包含革命起义、群体性事件等表现形式，是分析社会变迁和社会进步的重要工具。本文通过对清末革命与当下群体性事件数量进行分析，从实证的角度探讨社会冲突在区域上的历史遗传性，并从个人层面上的性格遗传与社会层面上的群体关系两个角度进行解释与论证。根据社会流动假说，清末科举制度的废除阻碍了社会流动，科举名额越多的地方发生革命事件的概率越高。我们利用科举名额作为工具变量，回归结果显示科举废后起义人数每增加一个标准差，当今的群体性数量会显著增加39%，稳健性检验也证明了这一结果。利用武昌起义后的革命数据进行检验，结果发现1911年末各府发生起义的可能性每增加一个标准差，当下群体性事件的数量会增加67%。    & lt/p& gt

& ltp& gtConflict is universal phenomenon including revolutions and mass disturbances, which is an important and useful tool in analyzing social progress. This paper studies the correlation between revolutionaries in the late Qing dynasty and mass disturbance at present to analysis the inheritance of social conflict. Using quotas in the elite recruitment system as instruments, we find that one standard deviation increase in revolutionaries implies about a 39 percentage point more mass disturbance, which can be explained through personal acter heredity and social relationship. What's more, test using uprising data in 1911 shows that one standard deviation increase in probability of uprising was associated with about a 67 percentage point larger quantity of mass disturbance.& lt/p& gt

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