& ltp& gt& ltp& gt& ltp& gt农产品作为人民生活的必需消费品，是关系到国计民生的重要问题。掌握农产品价格的波动情况，不仅对政策制定者来说是至关重要的，对农产品产业链上从农民到消费者的一系列利益相关者也十分重要。国家统计局对农产品价格有着长期、全面、多样的监测，本文以监测的三十种主要农产品中唯一的豆类农作物&mdash&mdash四季豆（豆角）为例，对其2002年1月起的集贸市场历史价格进行定量分析，建立ARIMA模型。根据模型对2015年四季豆集贸市场价格进行预测，并将预测结果与实际值进行比较，验证模型的准确性。这对于通过定量方法掌握农产品市场规律，帮助决策者进行科学、准确的决策有一定的意义和作用。& lt/p& gt& lt/p& gt& lt/p& gt

& ltp& gt& ltp& gtAgricultural products are necessities in people&rsquos lives, and are very important to the national economy and the people& #39s livelihood. Modelling and forecasting of prices of agricultural commodities is essential for policymakers as well as for various stakeholders in the marketing chain of these commodities, right from farmers to consumers. National Bureau of Statistics of China & #40NBSC) has monitored prices of agricultural products for a long period. This paper studies the price of common bean & #40Phaseolus vulgaris L.), which is the only Legumes of the thirty main agricultural products monitored by NBSC. This paper uses ARIMA model to predict the prices of common bean in 2015 based on historical data, compares the results with actual value, and verifies the accuracy of the model. This research is beneficial for decision makers by utilizing quantitative method to analyze the agricultural market.& lt/p& gt& lt/p& gt

[1] 刘飞. 如何运用ARIMA模型进行农产品价格的预测[J]. 商场现代化,2015,12:24-25.

[2] Lama, A., Jha, G. K., Paul, R. K., & Gurung, B. & #402015). Modelling and Forecasting of Price Volatility: An Application of GARCH and EGARCH Models §. Agricultural Economics Research Review, 28& #401), 73-82.

[3] 刘峰,王儒敬,李传席. ARIMA模型在农产品价格预测中的应用[J]. 计算机工程与应用,2009,25:238-239+248.

[4] 蔡景拓. ARIMA模型在农产品价格预测中的应用[J]. 商场现代化,2014,13:29-30.

[5] 傅如南,林丕源,严尚维,孙爱东. 基于ARIMA的肉鸡价格预测建模与应用[J]. 中国畜牧杂志,2008,20:17-21.

[6] 唐江桥,雷娜. 中国鸡蛋价格波动预警研究[J]. 西部论坛,2011,06:44-49.

[7] 何书元. 应用时间序列分析[M]. 北京：北京大学出版社,2003,54-225

[8] RAZZAQUE, M. & #402000). Autoregressive integrated moving average & #40ARIMA) modeling for monthly potato prices in Bangladesh.