- 无标题文档
查看论文信息

中文题名:

 地方政府债务与中国区域经济增长 ——基于地级市面板数据的实证分析    

姓名:

 高玮    

学科名称:

 税收学    

学生类型:

 学士    

学位名称:

 经济学学士    

学校:

 中国人民大学    

院系:

 财政金融学院    

专业:

 税收学    

第一导师姓名:

 刘勇政    

完成日期:

 2017-05-08    

提交日期:

 2017-05-08    

中文关键词:

 地级市 ; 地方政府债务 ; 经济增长     

外文关键词:

 prefecture-level administrative regions ; government debt ; economic growth    

中文摘要:

本文应用我国334个地级市的2006-2015年的面板数据,采用固定效应模型研究地方政府债务对于我国区域经济增长的影响。研究发现,我国地方政府债务与当地经济增长呈正U型关系,当债务负担较小时,二者之间存在负相关关系;当债务负担加大到一定程度之后,会促进经济发展。接着本文进一步对不同产业进行实证研究,结果发现对于第二产业来说,地方政府债务与第二产业经济发展之间同样呈现正U型关系;而在第一产业和第三产业中,二者没有显著的相关性。最后本文对东部和中西部进行分析。研究发现,在中西部地区政府债务与区域经济发展呈显著的正U型关系,而对于东部地区,二者之间为显著负相关。

外文摘要:

This paper uses the fixed effects model to make the quantitative analysis about the relationship between the government debt and regional economic growth, using the sample of 344 prefecture-level administrative regions from 2006 to 2015 in China. We found that there was significant U type relationship between government debt and regional economic growth, which means that there is a negative relationship between the two when the debt is low, but when the debt burden increases to a certain extent, the debt will promote economic development. So we cannot determine whether it is beneficial to the economy simply by debt scale. What's more, this paper divided GDP into different industries regions to conduct empirical researches. The results found that there are different relationships between the two, significant U type for the secondary industry and no relationship for the first and tertiary industry. Lastly, this paper divided our country into two parts, and made separate empirical researches. The results showed that there is significant U type in the Midwest part, and the negative relationship in the east part.

总页码:

 18    

参考文献:

[1] Cochrane J H. Understanding policy in the great recession: Some unpleasant fiscal arithmetic[J]. Ssrn Electronic Journal, 2011, 55(1):2-30.

[2] Codogno L, Favero C, Missale A, et al. Yield Spreads on EMU Government Bonds[J]. Economic Policy, 2003, 18(37):503–532.

[3] Diamond P A. National Debt in a Neoclassical Growth Model[J]. American Economic Review, 1965, 55(5):1126-1150.

[4] Eaton J. Sovereign Debt: A Primer[J]. World Bank Economic Review, 1991, 7(2):137-172.

[5] égert B. Public debt, economic growth and nonlinear effects: Myth or reality?[J]. Journal of Macroeconomics, 2013, 43:226–238.

[6] Fischer S. The role of macroeconomic factors in growth[J]. Journal of Monetary Economics, 1993, 32(3):485-512.

[7] Laubach T. New Evidence on the Interest Rate Effects of Budget Deficits and Debt[J]. Journal of the European Economic Association, 2009, 7(4):858-885.

[8] Lin S, Sosin K. Foreign debt and economic growth[J]. Economics of Transition, 2001, 9(3):635-655.

[9] Minea A, Parent A. Is High Public Debt Always Harmful to Economic Growth? Reinhart and Rogoff and Some Complex Nonlinearities[J]. Working Papers, 2012.

[10] Panizza U, Presbitero A F. Public debt and economic growth: Is there a causal effect?[C]// POLIS Working Papers 168, Institute of Public Policy and Public. 2012:21–41.

[11] Pescatori A, Sandri D, Simon J. Debt and Growth: Is There a Magic Threshold?[J]. Imf Working Papers, 2014, 14(34).

[12] Reinhart C M, Rogoff K S. Growth in a Time of Debt[J]. American Economic Review, 2010, 100(100):573-578.

[13] Saintpaul G. Fiscal Policy in an Endogenous Growth Model[J]. Quarterly Journal of Economics, 1992, 107(4):1243-1259.

[14] Lin S, Sosin K. Foreign debt and economic growth[J]. Economics of Transition, 2001, 9(3):635-655.

[15] Siddiqui R, Malik A. Debt and Economic Growth in South Asia[J]. Pakistan Development Review, 2001, 40(4):677-688.

[16] Tanzi, V., Chalk, N., Impact of large public debt on growth in the EU: a discussion of potential channels[J]. Eur. Econ, 2000, 2, 23–43.

[17] Teles V K, Mussolini C C. Public debt and the limits of fiscal policy to increase economic growth[J].

[18] Woo J, Kumar M S. Public Debt and Growth[J]. Economica, 2015, 10(328):9-13.

[19] CAI, YIFEI. 经济增长与政府债务的非线性研究及其政策治理[Nonlinear Analysis of Economic Growth and Public Debt and Policy Governance][J]. Mpra Paper, 2016.

[20] 陈诗一, 汪莉. 中国地方债务与区域经济增长[J]. 学术月刊, 2016(6):37-52.

[21] 胡翠, 许召元. 对外负债与经济增长[J]. 经济研究, 2011(2):19-30.

[22] 胡奕明, 顾祎雯. 地方政府债务与经济增长——基于审计署2010~2013年地方政府性债务审计结果[J]. 审计研究, 2016(5):104-112.

[23] 李翀. 财政赤字观和我国政府债务的分析[J]. 学术研究, 2012(1):59-65.

[24] 刘东民. 中国城投债:特征、风险与监管[J]. 国际经济评论, 2013(3):112-122.

[25] 刘洪钟, 杨攻研, 尹雷. 政府债务、经济增长与非线性效应[J]. 统计研究, 2014, 31(4):29-38.史朝阳. 经济增长视角下我国地方政府债务问题研究[D]. 华中科技大学, 2012.

[26] 刘震, 蒲成毅. 政府债务、私人投资与经济增长[J]. 贵州财经大学学报, 2014, 32(4):20-29.

[27] 王维国, 杨晓华. 我国国债与经济增长关系的计量分析——兼论国债负担对国债经济增长效应的影响[J]. 中国管理科学, 2006, 14(z1):300-305.

[28] 谢宇, 范钟秀, 鲁子奇,等. 社会科学的求实之道——谢宇教授访谈录[J]. 云梦学刊, 2012, 33(3):5-10.

[29] 尹恒. 政府债务妨碍长期经济增长:国际证据[J]. 统计研究, 2006, V23(1):29-34.

开放日期:

 2017-05-08    

无标题文档

   建议浏览器: 谷歌 火狐 360请用极速模式,双核浏览器请用极速模式