摘要

有大量实证研究表明，以GDP增长率为主要标准的经济发展水平受我国财政支出的影响较大，其中省级财政支出对经济发展水平的影响更是可观。本论文基于以前的许多研究，扩展了此领域内的研究，着眼于中国财政体制背景下GDP的增长速度与省级支出和省级财政支出中划分的生产性支出规模的联系。本文的贡献之处在于，划分财政支出时没有选取常用的划分方法，而是将财政支出按一定标准划分为生产性支出和非生产性支出。本文运用了中国31个省份2003年到2013年期间的样本数据，回归显示政府财政支出占GDP的比例对GDP的增长率有显著影响。

关键词：省级政府财政支出;生产性支出;中国

Abstract

A large number of empirical studies on China and other countries suggest that the growth rate of GDP can be partially influenced by government expenditure policies especially the provincial expenditure.  This paper extends the research in this field by considering the connections between the growth rate of GDP and the size of provincial expenditure and productive expenditure in the context of Chinese fiscal federalism.  The research using the productive and unproductive expenditure sorting method is rare, that is the most contribution lies here. Using a sample of 31 Chinese provinces for the period of 2003-2013, the ratio of government expenditure to GDP has an effect on the growth rate of GDP meanwhile adding three control variables in the regression model which are the population growth rate, per capita GDP growth rate, the growth rate of fixed asset investment.  Moreover, the explanatory power of both variable is not strong, the value of R-squared is low. Such results are shown in the fixed effect model.

Keywords:  provincial government expenditure;productive expenditure;China

[1] Agell, J., T. Lindh, H. Ohlsson. Growth and the public sector: a reply[J].European Journal of Political Economy, 1999,15:359-366.

[2] 陈志国，陈国绪.公共支出对经济增长作用机制的理论与实证分析[J].财政研究,2007年第3期:44-46

[3] Easterly, William. How Much Do Distortions Affect Growth[J]. Journal of Monetary Economics. 1993

[4] Folster, S. , M. Henrekson. Growth and the Public Sector:ACritique of the Critics[J]. European Journal of Political Economy, 1999,15:337-358.

[5] 郝宁宁.我国政府支出与经济增长的实证研究[D].吉林：吉林大学，2008.

[6] Robert J. Barro. Economic growth in a cross section of countries [J]. The Quarterly Journal of Economics. 1991.106( 2):407-443

[7] 王春元.我国政府财政支出结构与经济增长关系实证分析[J].财经研究,2009年第6期:120-130

[8] 王力.政府支出与经济增长关系研究[D].北京：清华大学，2003.

[9] 于遨洋.对政府支出与经济增的计量实证分析[D].财政部财政科学研究所2010年6月

[10]张倩.政府支出与经济增长关系的实证分析[D].天津：天津财经大学，2012.