本研究以北京市温榆河为研究对象，考察大肠杆菌O157:H7、空肠弯曲杆菌、沙门氏菌、志贺氏菌四种典型水源传播病原微生物的污染状况，并以四季节次采样检测所得的浓度数据为基础，结合实地考察和文献调研等多种研究方式，采用定量微生物风险评价的方法，计算温榆河病原微生物的健康风险，以期对河流风险管理提供参考。结果表明：四种病原微生物的浓度和年感染风险的均值大小排序均为空肠弯曲杆菌>大肠杆菌O157:H7>志贺氏菌>沙门氏菌；病原微生物导致的DALY损失大小排序为大肠杆菌O157:H7>空肠弯曲杆菌>沙门氏菌；河道保洁和游船驾驶是人群健康损失的主要暴露方式。以世界卫生组织10^-6DALY/person/year的阈值来判断，温榆河的病原微生物健康风险是不可接受的。建议应提高对地表水体中的病原微生物的注和研究，加强对水体各种病原菌浓度的控制。

This study monitored the pollution state of four typical pathogens which transmit through water body, named E.coli O157:H7, Campylobacter, Shigella and Salmonella, respectively. Based on the concentration data, QMRA method was used to determine the health risk caused by pathogen by field investigation and literature research. The results can provide reference for enacting water quality standard and risk control of the river. The concentration and the annual probability of infection due to the four pathogens went in the order of Campylobacter > E. coli O157:H7 > Shigella > Salmonella. And the DALYs due to pathogenic infection goes in the order of E. coli O157:H7 > Campylobacter> Salmonella. River cleaning and Cruise shipping were exposure routes with higher risks. The health risk of Wenyu River was thought to be unacceptable while 10^-6pppy, which is recommended by WHO, was used as criteria. Study on pathogens in surface water should be paid more attention to pathogens because of their high health risks.

[1]陈胜蓝, 尹红果, 陈梦清, 等. 环境水体中病原微生物与指示微生物的相关性研究[J]. 浙江农业科学, 2015(04):448-452.

[2]孙傅, 沙婧, 张一帆, 等. 城市景观娱乐水体微生物风险评价[J]. 环境科学, 2013(03):933-942.

[3]Schijven J F, Teunis P P M, Rutjes S A, et al. QMRAspot: A tool for Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessment from surface water to potable water[J]. WATER RESEARCH, 2011,45(17):5564-5576.

[4]HAAS C N, JACANGELO J G. DEVELOPMENT OF REGRESSION-MODELS WITH BELOW-DETECTION DATA[J]. JOURNAL OF ENVIRONMENTAL ENGINEERING-ASCE, 1993,119(2):214-230.

[5]Ashbolt N J, Schoen M E, Soller J A, et al. Predicting pathogen risks to aid beach management: The real value of quantitative microbial risk assessment (QMRA)[J]. WATER RESEARCH, 2010,44(16SI):4692-4703.

[6]Hamilton A J, Stagnitti F, Boland A M, et al. Quantitative microbial risk assessment modelling for the use of reclaimed water in irrigated horticulture[M]//Brebbia C A, Popov V, Fayzieva D. WIT TRANSACTIONS ON BIOMEDICINE AND HEALTH. 2005:71-81.

[7]Shuval H, Lampert Y, Fattal B. Development of a risk assessment approach for evaluating wastewater reuse standards for agriculture[J]. WATER SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY, 1997,35(11-12):15-20.

[8]宋志文, 孙群, 徐爱玲, 等. 人工湿地中指示与病原微生物动态分布及相关性分析[J]. 生态学杂志, 2013(01):91-97.

[9]Wilkes G, Edge T, Gannon V, et al. Seasonal relationships among indicator bacteria, pathogenic bacteria, Cryptosporidium oocysts, Giardia cysts, and hydrological indices for surface waters within an agricultural landscape[J]. WATER RESEARCH, 2009,43(8):2209-2223.

[10]中华人民共和国环境保护部. HJ 494－2009 水质 采样技术指导[S]. 2009.

[11]孙婷婷, 张崇淼, 王晓昌, 等. 城市生活污水中志贺氏菌ipaH毒力基因的定量PCR检测[J]. 环境工程学报, 2013(05):1631-1635.

[12]邱志刚, 金敏, 于连媛, 等. 水中致病菌浓集回收方法优化及检测[J]. 中国公共卫生, 2013(10):1543-1545.

[13]Nogva H K, Bergh A, Holck A, et al. Application of the 5 '-nuclease PCR assay in evaluation and development of methods for quantitative detection of Campylobacter jejuni[J]. APPLIED AND ENVIRONMENTAL MICROBIOLOGY, 2000,66(9):4029-4036.

[14]李军, 谢宇舟, 禤雄标, 等. 大肠杆菌O157∶H7实时定量PCR检测方法的建立[J]. 畜牧与兽医, 2011(05):5-9.

[15]Dufour A P, Evans O, Behymer T D, et al. Water ingestion during swimming activities in a pool: a pilot study.[J]. Journal of water and health, 2006,4(4):425-430.

[16]Schets F M, Schijven J F, Husman A M D R. Exposure assessment for swimmers in bathing waters and swimming pools[J]. WATER RESEARCH, 2011,45(7):2392-2400.

[17]Weir M H, Razzolini M T P, Rose J B, et al. Water reclamation redesign for reducing Cryptosporidium risks at a recreational spray park using stochastic models[J]. WATER RESEARCH, 2011,45(19):6505-6514.

[18]Dorevitch S, Panthi S, Huang Y, et al. Water ingestion during water recreation[J]. WATER RESEARCH, 2011,45(5):2020-2028.

[19]Haas C N. Microbial Dose Response Modeling: Past, Present, and Future[J]. ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCE & TECHNOLOGY, 2015,49(3):1245-1259.

[20]Toze S, Bekele E, Page D, et al. Use of static Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessment to determine pathogen risks in an unconfined carbonate aquifer used for Managed Aquifer Recharge[J]. WATER RESEARCH, 2010,44(4SI):1038-1049.

[21]Armitage P, Meynell G G, Williams T. Birth-death and other models for microbial infection.[J]. Nature, 1965,207(997):570-572.

[22]DUNCAN H E, EDBERG S C. HOST-MICROBE INTERACTION IN THE GASTROINTESTINAL-TRACT[J]. CRITICAL REVIEWS IN MICROBIOLOGY, 1995,21(2):85-100.

[23]Fewtrell B L, Bartram J. Water Quality: Guidelines, Standards and Health (IWA- SMITTSKYDDSINSTITUTET- WHO, 2001) Edited by[J]. Iwa Publishing, 2010(2).

[24]何星海, 马世豪, 李安定. 再生水利用中肠道病毒的健康风险[J]. 中国给水排水, 2005(03):88-90.

[25]Gao T, Wang X C, Chen R, et al. Disability adjusted life year (DALY): A useful tool for quantitative assessment of environmental pollution[J]. SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT, 2015,511:268-287.

[26]WHO. World Health Statistics 2013[EB/OL]. http://www.who.int/gho/publications/world_health_statistics/2013/en.

[27]Soller J A, Schoen M E, Bartrand T, et al. Estimated human health risks from exposure to recreational waters impacted by human and non-human sources of faecal contamination[J]. Water Research, 2010,44(16):4674-4691.

[28]Machdar E, van der Steen N P, Raschid-Sally L, et al. Application of Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessment to analyze the public health risk from poor drinking water quality in a low income area in Accra, Ghana[J]. Science of The Total Environment, 2013,449:134-142.

[29]Gibney K B, O Toole J, Sinclair M, et al. Disease burden of selected gastrointestinal pathogens in Australia, 2010[J]. International Journal of Infectious Diseases, 2014,28:176-185.

[30]ELSHAARAWI A H, ESTERBY S R, DUTKA B J. BACTERIAL DENSITY IN WATER DETERMINED BY POISSON OR NEGATIVE BINOMIAL DISTRIBUTIONS[J]. APPLIED AND ENVIRONMENTAL MICROBIOLOGY, 1981,41(1):107-116.

[31]CHRISTIAN R R, PIPES W O. FREQUENCY-DISTRIBUTION OF COLIFORMS IN WATER DISTRIBUTION-SYSTEMS[J]. APPLIED AND ENVIRONMENTAL MICROBIOLOGY, 1983,45(2):603-609.