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中文题名:

 货币政策与房价、股价三者联动关系的实证研究    

姓名:

 李梦云    

学科名称:

 金融学    

学生类型:

 学士    

学位名称:

 经济学学士    

学校:

 中国人民大学    

院系:

 财政金融学院    

专业:

 金融学    

第一导师姓名:

 黄继承    

完成日期:

 2016-05-12    

提交日期:

 2016-05-12    

中文关键词:

 货币政策 ; 货币量 ; 利率 ; 股价 ; 房价    

外文关键词:

 monetary policy ; currency amounts ; interest rate ; stock price ; property prices    

中文摘要:
& ltp& gt       2014年11月22日,央行意图降低基准利率来使社会融资成本降低,从而解决中小企业目前所面临的融资问题。然而央行此举引起了国内股票市场和房地产市场的剧烈反应,股票价格持续走高,达到历年来的最高水平;很多地方房价也逐步飙升。那么,央行降息政策为何会导致股市与房市的剧烈反应呢?& lt/p& gt & ltp& gt       因此,从我国特殊情况出发,本文深入研究了货币政策、股价与房价之间的相互影响,理清了货币政策在股市、房市的传导机制以及这两种投资品之间的相互效应。运用Granger因果关系检验、VAR分析以及方差分析,通过实证检验得到:货币政策可正向作用于房地产价格,且作用较为显著;货币政策同样正向作用于股票价格,但该作用较弱;股价和房价反过来正向作用于利率,其中股价影响更为显著;股价对房价呈现反向影响,替代效应起到主要作用;而房价可以显著且正向地影响股价,其中财富效应占主导。& lt/p& gt & ltp& gt关键词:货币政策;货币量;利率;股价;房价& lt/p& gt
外文摘要:
& ltp& gt       In November 22, 2014, the central bank invented to reduce the social cost of financing by lowering interest rates, so as to solve the current financing problem of small and medium-sized enterprises. However, after this policy, the reaction in domestic stock market and property market is very fierce. Stock price continues to soar and property price in many places also rises up. So why can the policy of cutting interest rates cause such violent reaction to stock and property prices?& lt/p& gt & ltp& gt       Therefore, basing the special situation in our ry, this paper deeply studies the interaction between monetary policy and stock price and property price. It can clarify the transmission mechanism of monetary policy in stock market and property market and the mutual effect between these two markets. This paper analyses this problem empirically by using granger causality tests, VAR analysis and variance analysis. At last, it reaches some conclusions: monetary policy has positive impact on property price, and this impact is significant It also has positive impact on stock price, but this impact is a little weak In turn, stock and property prices also have positive effect on interest rates, and the influence of stock price is more significant Share price has a negative effect on property price and the substitution effect is significant Property price has a significant and positive effect on stock price and the wealth effect is predominant?& lt/p& gt & ltp& gtKey words: monetary policy;currency amounts;interest rate;stock price;property prices& lt/p& gt
总页码:

 17    

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开放日期:

 2016-05-13    

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