& ltp& gt& ltp& gt背景：在中国艾滋病的传播已经成为了一个大问题，在众多传播途径中，性传播成为了一个主要途径。而在性传播中，男同性恋直接的传播变得越来越重要了。除此之外，在中国实行了艾滋病免费检测和治疗政策，艾滋病感染者一般接受两线药物治疗。然而，患者对于一线药物和二线药物的耐药性激起了广泛的关注，现有的研究却忽略了耐药性的问题。& lt/p& gt & ltp& gt方法：根据我国男同特点，现有的公共卫生政策和耐药性现状，我建立了一个船舶动力学模型仓室模型。之后我用这个模型预测对抗病毒治疗耐药性的流行趋势。其中为了确定模型中的参数，我主要用了三种方法：查阅文献例如队列研究，统计学方法比如使用Logistic人口模型和用最小二乘法数学倒退。因为有参数以区间形式赋值，我使用了蒙特卡洛算法随机取值一千次进行数值模拟。同时对这些参数进行敏感度分析。& lt/p& gt & ltp& gt结果：根据计算结果，在2022年，北京市男同患病总人数将达到43398（24972-67113），是不考虑耐药性的预计结果的1.58倍，同时考虑耐药性之后男同性恋中艾滋病新发感染人数大约是不考虑耐药性的2倍。同时2022年男同中艾滋病的感染率为29.18%，大约是2012年的五倍。& lt/p& gt & ltp& gt结论：和不考虑耐药性的情况相比，耐药的出现加重了艾滋病的严重性。在预防和治疗艾滋病的过程中，中国应该关注药物的多样性，避孕套的推广使用和耐药性对治疗的影响。& lt/p& gt & ltp& gt关键词：男同性恋 /艾滋病传播 /抗病毒治疗 /耐药性/仓室模型& lt/p& gt& lt/p& gt

& ltp& gt& ltp& gtBackground: Spreading of HIV has become a challenge in China, among which sexual transmission has become a dominant way. Among sexual transmission, the sexual behaviors among MSM are becoming increasingly significant. In addition, the free HIV testing and antiretroviral therapy recently have been implemented among men who have sex with men in China and HIV infections normally receive two lines of drug. However, the resistance of the first-line and second-line drug now draws national attention and few studies have examined the epidemic trend of drug resistance to ART in China.& lt/p& gt & ltp& gt & Method: I constructed a dynamic compartment model based on the acteristics of MSM, existing public health programs including HIV testing rate and ART coverage and drug resistance to ART in Beijing, China. After this I use the model to predict the epidemic situation of drug resistance to ART of HIV/AIDS among MSM in Beijing. To determine the value of some unknown parameters, I mainly used three methods: reading literature such as cohort studies, applying statistical method such as Logistic population model and using backward induction together with least squares method through MATLAB. I also carried out Monte-Carlo simulations to the parameters assigned in the form of interval for 1000 times, and then do numerical simulation to the model equations. As parts of the parameters are assigned in interval, I performed sensitivity analysis to access the extent of affection to the prediction when perturbing critical parameters.& lt/p& gt & Results: According to the prediction calculated by the model, in 2022, the overall number of HIV/AIDS will reach 43398& #4024972-67113), which is 58.5% more than the overall number of HIV/AIDS not considering drug resistance in the same year. The number of new infections will reach 7691& #404214-11913), which is 101% more than the amount not taking drug resistance into consideration. Also, HIV prevalence will raise to 29.18% in 2022，which is relatively 5 times as much as the prevalence rate in Conclusion: Compared to the situation not taking drug resistance into consideration, drug resistance has remarkably increased the severity of the HIV/AIDS. In the prevention and control of the HIV/AIDS among MSM, China has to pay attention to the diversity of the drug, the usage of condom and the effect of the drug resistance.& lt/p& gt & ltp& gtKey Words: MSM/HIV transmission/ART/drug resistance /compartment model& lt/p& gt& lt/p& gt

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